Arabica coffee breaking record highs after the Colombia news—where are we looking for support on a retracement?

[ApexQuant]

Hey everyone,

Just watching Arabica coffee futures (KC) blast through all-time highs following the headline that the tariff and sanction threats against Colombia were pulled back. We're seeing some massive volatility on the charts right now as the market digests the news.

Since we're essentially trading in price discovery mode at this point, I wanted to open a thread to map out how everyone is approaching this from a technical and order flow perspective.

A few questions I'm wrestling with on the charts:

1. Support/Resistance Mapping: With old resistance blown out, what key levels are you anchoring to for a potential retest? Are you treating the previous peak as new structural support, or expecting a deeper mean reversion once the initial knee-jerk reaction cools down?
2. Order Flow & Volume Profile: Did anyone catch the footprint chart during the breakout spike? It looked like a massive liquidity sweep above the old highs, but buying volume seems to be holding up rather than immediately dumping back into the previous value area.
3. Short-Term Trend Sustainability: Daily RSI is looking severely overbought, but as we know with soft commodities, momentum can stay irrational longer than technical indicators suggest when supply/macro headlines dominate.

Are you playing the momentum breakout here, waiting for a pullback to key support before entering long, or looking for exhaustion signs to fade this move? Would love to see your charts or level breakdowns!

 

[JulianCraft]

Honestly, I’d be real careful trying to catch a falling knife or even buying the breakout here. The way liquidity is being sucked into these softs right now feels like a direct symptom of the broader inflationary rot we're seeing everywhere else. When you have the Fed talking tough about rates but the real economy is still dealing with these supply chain shocks, it just creates these manic blow-off tops. Personally, I'm staying on the sidelines; the risk-to-reward on a long looks terrible when you consider that a sudden spike in real yields could crush demand across the board regardless of what's happening in Colombia. Just my two cents, but I think the market is getting way ahead of itself.

 

[Zakami Ng]

Man, coffee is absolutely parabolic right now. I’m looking at the daily and the RSI is way up in the 80s, which usually spells trouble, but these commodity blow-offs love to just ignore the oscillator until they're good and ready. I wouldn't touch this long until I see a clean retest of that old breakout level as support.

If I'm looking for a reason to fade, I’m waiting for a bearish MACD crossover on the 4-hour before I even think about a short. Right now the momentum is just too aggressive to step in front of that train. I'm keeping my powder dry.

 

[Owen Carter 27]

I'm ignoring the RSI and MACD talk, honestly. Indicators just clutter the view when you're in price discovery like this. The only thing that matters to me is how price reacts if it revisits that breakout zone around the old ATH. I’m looking for a clean retest and a solid price action signal—maybe a nice daily pin bar or a strong engulfing candle—to confirm that old resistance has actually flipped to support. Until then, chasing this move is just gambling.

 

[EthanCole]

Totally agree with waiting for the daily structure to clean up. Coffee can stay irrational way longer than most people can stay solvent on these parabolic runs, and trying to buy the first minor 4H dip right now is just asking for pain. We are so far extended from any logical daily support that I'm content to just sit on my hands for a couple of weeks and let the dust settle. If it keeps running without me, so be it—there's always another setup on another chart, no need to force this one.

 

[Mason Brooks]

I'm with you guys on staying patient. Everyone talks about "buying the dip" but nobody talks about where they’re getting out if the dip turns into a dump. If I can't find a level that lets me keep my risk under 1% of my account with a logical stop, I’m staying on the sidelines. Chasing this right now is a great way to get liquidated on a standard 10-cent "retracement" that wipes out all the late longs. Better to miss the trade than to take a hit you can't recover from.