Trade Idea AUDJPY bouncing off 109 support thoughts

[Marcus Vance 82]

Morning everyone. Just looking over the charts this morning and saw the recent wave analysis on AUDJPY bouncing right off that 109 handle. Ngl, this level has been on my radar for weeks because it acted as a major floor back in May and again early August, plus it lines up nicely with the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Back when I first started trading the cross pairs, I used to jump into these bounces without waiting for confirmation and I got chopped up pretty bad during ranging markets. Experience has taught me to wait for a solid daily close and manage risk tightly, especially with the Aussie because the volatility during Asian hours can fake you out real quick. If you are eyeing that move up toward 111 like the technicals suggest, definitely keep your stops tucked just below that 109 support zone so a sudden spill doesn't wreck your account. Don't let FOMO make you oversize your position here.

Are any of you guys taking this long setup today or staying on the sidelines until we see a cleaner break?

 

[ArthurByte]

Retail calling it a "support bounce" lol. Look at the tape, it just swept all the sell-side liquidity below 109 straight into a clean 4H Bullish Order Block. The displacement off that level left a massive 15m FVG. I already smashed the long button as soon as we got the lower timeframe CHoCH. Easy target at the buy-side liquidity resting above 110.50. Let's send it

 

[Noah Vance BR]

Retail calling it a "support bounce" lol. Look at the tape, it just swept all the sell-side liquidity below 109 straight into a clean 4H Bullish Order Block.

Spot on, Arthur. Everyone and their mom was staring at that 109 line like it was magic, but the liquidity grab underneath was textbook. I'm riding this up to 110.50 too, risk-to-reward on that 15m entry was way too clean to ignore.

 

[Zakami Ng]

Easy target at the buy-side liquidity resting above 110.50. Let's send it

Yeah the liquidity sweep was obvious, but don't ignore the indicators here guys. On the 4H, MACD just printed a bullish crossover right as we cleared that low, and the RSI put in a pretty clear hidden bullish divergence off the 109 handle. I'm long too, but keeping an eye on momentum slowing down near 110 just in case.

 

[LucasBennet]

@ArthurByte exactly, these retail guys see a "support line" and get slaughtered while the big boys just take their stops to fuel the next leg. I was watching the order flow on the 5m and that sweep was a thing of beauty. Already sitting on a decent chunk of profit here, but I'm probably gonna scale out half once we hit 110.20 just to lock in some lunch money before the NY session gets messy.

@Zakami Ng I wouldn't worry too much about the RSI divergence right now, the momentum is clearly shifted. Keep your stops tight if you're worried about the 110 psychological level, but this looks like it wants to run higher. Let's see if we can get a clean break above 110.50 without too much drama.

 

[Mason Brooks]

Keep your stops tight if you're worried about the 110 psychological level

Yeah "keep your stops tight" sounds great until you get wicked out right before it actually goes. Where's your actual invalidation level here, Lucas? If 108.80 breaks, are you cutting it immediately or hoping for a close?

Everyone's acting like 110.50 is a free ATM until the cross pulls some random-ass spread widening at the London/NY overlap and eats half the room's margin. Don't marry the position, guys. Size it small enough that you can actually sleep tonight.

 

[EthanCole]

Spot on, @Mason Brooks. Everyone’s rushing to lock in lunch money or chanting about order blocks like it's a cheat code, but nobody's talking about letting the daily chart actually breathe.

I'm just sitting on my hands here. If you're zooming into 5m and 15m charts trying to scalp every little liquidity sweep on AUDJPY right now, you're just asking for the spread to chew you up during the overlap. Wake me up when the daily candle closes with some real conviction instead of chasing noise.