YieldWeaver
New member
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2026
- Messages
- 3
Alright guys grab your coffee and look at the charts right now because this price action is actually nuts. I opened TradingView around 6am while waiting for the kettle to boil and almost spat out my drink. We have some textbook technical patterns playing out across the board, especially on Aussie and Cable, and if you are trading breakout momentum without looking at higher timeframe resistance you are about to get absolutely rekt.
First off, AUDUSD. That Australian CPI drop was pure fuel for the bulls overnight. 1.3% for Q3 against 0.6% in Q2, headline annual holding at 3.9%, and core printing 3.7%. Naturally, rate hike bets for the RBA lit up and everyone and their mother rushed to hit the market buy button. Complete fomo candle straight to a one-month high.
But look at where that wick stalled. Literally tagged the 200-day moving average to the exact pip and got slammed down. You cannot make this up. Classic liquidity sweep right into dynamic resistance. I learned this lesson the brutally painful way back in May when I tried to blindly DCA long into a daily 200dma rejection thinking momentum would just carry it through. Ended up watching my equity melt away over three days because I refused to respect the moving average and ended up hitting my max drawdown stoploss. Never again.
Until AUDUSD prints a solid daily candle close above that 200dma, chasing this jump is just handing money to market makers, especially with the Fed right around the corner. If Powell comes out hawkish, this entire CPI pop is gona get faded right back down to base support. If we do get a clean 4H close above the 200dma with volume, then sure, the breakout is valid and we can target the next liquidity pocket higher up. But right now? It's just a wicked rejection at major resistance.
Now shift your eyes to Cable because GBPUSD is setting up an absolute masterclass in market structure. I saw UBS pointing out that short positioning on sterling is getting dangerously crowded. When everyone is on one side of the boat, you know what usually happens—the market hunts those stops and squeezes the life out of early bears.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the structure on the hourly chart is so clean it looks drawn by hand. That drop from the August 21 highs looks like a textbook wave A impulse that bottomed right around 1.314. Now, we are printing what looks like a classic 3-wave zigzag for wave B. Everyone trying to scalp breakdown shorts on the 15m chart right here is playing with fire because this corrective wave B bounce has plenty of room to stretch higher and chew up those buy-stops sitting above local swing highs before the broader downtrend even thinks about resuming.
My playbook for Cable right now is staying patient. I'm not chasing longs because wave B corrections can be choppy and violent, but I am definately not shorting the bottom of the range into crowded short positioning. I want to see this three-wave zigzag push up, test supply, sweep the highs, and give us a nice bearish divergence on the RSI. Once wave B completes its structure, that's when the high-probability short entry for wave C opens up.
Are you guys fading this Aussie CPI spike back under the 200dma, or are you waiting for Fed confirmation before putting on any size? Curious if anyone else is tracking that wave B completion on Cable or if you're already caught in the chop.
First off, AUDUSD. That Australian CPI drop was pure fuel for the bulls overnight. 1.3% for Q3 against 0.6% in Q2, headline annual holding at 3.9%, and core printing 3.7%. Naturally, rate hike bets for the RBA lit up and everyone and their mother rushed to hit the market buy button. Complete fomo candle straight to a one-month high.
But look at where that wick stalled. Literally tagged the 200-day moving average to the exact pip and got slammed down. You cannot make this up. Classic liquidity sweep right into dynamic resistance. I learned this lesson the brutally painful way back in May when I tried to blindly DCA long into a daily 200dma rejection thinking momentum would just carry it through. Ended up watching my equity melt away over three days because I refused to respect the moving average and ended up hitting my max drawdown stoploss. Never again.
Until AUDUSD prints a solid daily candle close above that 200dma, chasing this jump is just handing money to market makers, especially with the Fed right around the corner. If Powell comes out hawkish, this entire CPI pop is gona get faded right back down to base support. If we do get a clean 4H close above the 200dma with volume, then sure, the breakout is valid and we can target the next liquidity pocket higher up. But right now? It's just a wicked rejection at major resistance.
Now shift your eyes to Cable because GBPUSD is setting up an absolute masterclass in market structure. I saw UBS pointing out that short positioning on sterling is getting dangerously crowded. When everyone is on one side of the boat, you know what usually happens—the market hunts those stops and squeezes the life out of early bears.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the structure on the hourly chart is so clean it looks drawn by hand. That drop from the August 21 highs looks like a textbook wave A impulse that bottomed right around 1.314. Now, we are printing what looks like a classic 3-wave zigzag for wave B. Everyone trying to scalp breakdown shorts on the 15m chart right here is playing with fire because this corrective wave B bounce has plenty of room to stretch higher and chew up those buy-stops sitting above local swing highs before the broader downtrend even thinks about resuming.
My playbook for Cable right now is staying patient. I'm not chasing longs because wave B corrections can be choppy and violent, but I am definately not shorting the bottom of the range into crowded short positioning. I want to see this three-wave zigzag push up, test supply, sweep the highs, and give us a nice bearish divergence on the RSI. Once wave B completes its structure, that's when the high-probability short entry for wave C opens up.
Are you guys fading this Aussie CPI spike back under the 200dma, or are you waiting for Fed confirmation before putting on any size? Curious if anyone else is tracking that wave B completion on Cable or if you're already caught in the chop.
