SpreadRunner
New member
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2026
- Messages
- 5
Been digging into the latest COT data and honestly, the copper situation is giving me some serious pause today. We’re seeing this weird divergence where the short-term crowd is getting all hyped and bullish while the broader positioning is hitting that classic bearish extreme territory. I’ve seen this movie before back in 2021, and usually, when retail starts chasing these ATH levels while the smart money is quietly loading up on shorts, it ends with a nasty liquidity grab. Don't fall for the FOMO just because the headlines look green right now.
I’ve learned the hard way that when the positioning gets this lopsided, you have to prioritize capital preservation over trying to catch the absolute top or bottom. If you’re trading copper here, keep your stops tight and maybe scale out half your position early if it moves in your direction. It’s the same vibe with that natural gas setup right now, where the long-term extremes are just begging for a mean reversion. NGL, I’m leaning towards waiting for a proper breakdown before adding to any shorts, but the temptation to scalp the volatility is definitely there. It's easy to get chopped up in these mixed signals if you aren't disciplined with your sizing.
Are you guys looking to fade this copper move, or are you still riding the momentum long?
I’ve learned the hard way that when the positioning gets this lopsided, you have to prioritize capital preservation over trying to catch the absolute top or bottom. If you’re trading copper here, keep your stops tight and maybe scale out half your position early if it moves in your direction. It’s the same vibe with that natural gas setup right now, where the long-term extremes are just begging for a mean reversion. NGL, I’m leaning towards waiting for a proper breakdown before adding to any shorts, but the temptation to scalp the volatility is definitely there. It's easy to get chopped up in these mixed signals if you aren't disciplined with your sizing.
Are you guys looking to fade this copper move, or are you still riding the momentum long?
