French 10Y yields breaking 5 percent - How are we playing EUR pairs here?

[Robert Chen]

Hey everyone, just looking at the charts this morning and seeing the 10-year French OAT yields pushing above 5 percent for the first time since 2002. Ngl, this whole fiscal mess in France is starting to look like a proper headache for the ECB, especially with headline inflation ticking back up to 3.8 percent in September. EURUSD has been looking heavy, but I'm trying to figure out how this is actually hitting the order books right now. Are we seeing real institutional selling, or is this just retail panic building up near current support levels? IWM and EUR crosses are getting choppy, and I'm holding off on any major swings until I see how price action reacts to the next major daily support zone. Anyone tracking the EUR/GBP or EUR/USD order flow this week? Where are you guys scaling in or taking profit if this macro pressure finally breaks the range?

 

[Liam Walker]

Everyone is acting like this is the death knell for the Euro, which is exactly why I’m looking for a massive long entry here. Everyone and their grandma is piling into shorts because they saw a 5% headline, so don't be surprised when the institutional algos rip everyone's face off on a short squeeze back to the upside. The market loves to punish the consensus move, and right now, the consensus is that France is heading for a dumpster fire. I'm buying the dip.