Is the Loonie headed for a deeper drop?

[Robert Vance]

Hey everyone, I’ve been trying to keep an eye on the forex charts lately and I noticed the Canadian dollar is basically glued to these recent lows. I keep seeing headlines about the U.S. dollar just running wild and putting a ton of pressure on CAD, and ngl, it’s making me a bit nervous about my small positions.

I’m still pretty new to the game, so I’m trying to wrap my head around why the USD strength is hitting the Loonie so hard right now. Is this just a temporary thing or should I be bracing for a bigger move downwards? I’m mostly just trying to learn how to read these macro moves without getting caught up in the fomo or panic selling. Any of you legends have advice on how you handle these kinds of sustained trends when you're just starting out?

 

[JulianCraft]

Honestly I wouldn't be buying any loonies right now. With the sticky inflation prints we keep seeing down south, the Fed is in no position to actually pivot, and Powell is just going to keep hammering rates higher while the BOC blinks first. It's a total macro disaster for CAD. If you're new, just protect your capital because this USD strength train isn't stopping anytime soon.

 

[Zakami Ng]

I get the nerves, man. When the trend is this strong, you really just have to wait for the technicals to give you a clear sign before trying to catch a falling knife.

I’ve been watching the daily charts on USDCAD and honestly, I'm just waiting for a solid bearish RSI divergence before I even think about a pullback. Right now the MACD is still looking pretty stretched to the upside with no crossover in sight, so catching that bottom is basically gambling. Keep your position size tiny if you're going to trade against this momentum, otherwise you're just asking for a margin call.