Is the Silver correction finally setting up a long entry?

[Marcus Vance 97]

Been tracking XAGUSD lately and the price action has been looking pretty heavy since that August peak near 71.20. I’ve been eyeing the current move lower and it’s starting to look like a textbook Zig Zag corrective pattern on the charts. It’s always a bit of a headache trying to time these Elliott Wave counts because one bad impulsive leg can invalidate the whole thesis, but the structure is getting hard to ignore at these levels.

I’m curious how everyone else is looking at this liquidity pocket. If we hold current support, do you think we have enough momentum to break the bearish structure, or are we just setting up for another leg down to trap the longs? I’m worried about order flow drying up if we don’t bounce here soon, as the bears seem to be in full control of the short-term trend. Ngl, I'm tempted to scalp a long if we get a bullish engulfing on the daily, but the macro overhead is still weighing on me. Anyone else seeing a potential bottom here, or are you waiting for more confirmation before jumping in?

 

[Noah Vance BR]

Yeah I'm watching this drop closely too, but honestly I'm waiting for a sweep of that liquidity underneath before putting on any risk. R:R looks decent on paper once it hits support, but silver loves to fake out the breakout traders before actually moving. Let's see if buyers actually step in or if this thing just keeps bleeding.

 

[JulianCraft]

@Noah Vance BR I’m with you on waiting for that liquidity sweep, but honestly, I’m not sure I’d even touch silver here. With the way the Fed is talking about keeping rates higher for longer to kill this sticky inflation, I feel like precious metals are just walking into a buzzsaw. Every time there's a dip, people think it's a value play, but the macro backdrop is absolute garbage right now. I’m staying in cash.

 

[EthanCole]

I’m with @Noah Vance BR on this one—patience is the only thing keeping my account from blowing up. Silver loves to hunt stops before it makes any real move, so chasing this dip without seeing a clear reaction at those lower levels is just asking for a headache. I’m happy to sit on my hands and wait for a proper structure shift on the 4H before I even think about clicking buy. No point forcing a trade when the macro environment is as muddy as @JulianCraft mentioned. Cash is a position too, right?

 

[Mason Brooks]

Cash is a position too, right?

100%. Everyone's so focused on trying to catch the exact bottom, but nobody is talking about position sizing or where their trade is actually invalidated.

Silver volatility will strip your account bare if you try to size this like gold or FX. Even if we do get that liquidity sweep @Noah Vance BR was talking about, those $1.50 wicks will hit your stop before the real move happens if you aren't sizing down dramatically.

I've got a alert set at support, but I'm not touching it unless I can cap my total risk at 0.5% of equity with a hard stop right under the swing low. If it breaks, I take the micro-loss and move on—no averaging down into a falling knife.

 

[Zakami Ng]

@EthanCole I’m right there with you on waiting for that 4H structure shift. Everyone is trying to be a hero, but if you look at the 4H, the MACD is still screaming lower with no signs of a bullish crossover yet. I'm waiting for a clean RSI bullish divergence to form before I even consider looking at the long side. If the price hunts that liquidity like @Noah Vance BR mentioned while the RSI is putting in a higher low, that’s when I’ll start paying attention. Until then, I'm staying on the sidelines.