Just read about Deutsche Bank and the Euro help a newbie out

[Mark Thompson 26]

Hey guys, I’ve only been trading for a few weeks and I'm still trying to figure out how to read these big bank reports without getting totally lost. I just saw that Deutsche Bank thinks the Euro is going to hold its range even though the dollar is looking super strong right now. Honestly, I’m a bit confused because I thought if the USD is pumping then the Euro is supposed to tank hard? Ngl, I was about to short the pair because of the dollar strength but now I’m worried I’m missing something big and I'm catching some serious fomo.

Does "holding a range" mean I should be looking to buy the dips or is it better to just sit on my hands and wait for a breakout? I really don't want to blow my small account on a bad move or get caught in a nasty liquidation. I've been watching the charts all morning and it feels like everything is moving so fast. I'd love to hear what you more experienced traders think about the current setup for EUR/USD and if these bank predictions are actually worth following. Are you guys planning to scalp these levels or are you just holding onto your bags and waiting for more clarity?

 

[Liam Walker]

Man, everyone's panicking about Deutsche Bank and the Euro again like it's 2012 all over the media. Honestly, that's music to my ears—every time the mainstream gets this terrified about European banking, it usually means the bottom is either already in or a massive contrarian long is about to print. Don't let the doomers scare you out of a good setup.

 

[EthanCole]

every time the mainstream gets this terrified about European banking, it usually means the bottom is either already in or a massive contrarian long is about to print.

I hear you on the contrarian angle @Liam Walker, but I'd urge OP to just turn off the news altogether. Trying to catch falling knives purely off banking panic headlines is a quick way to blow an account.

I'm watching the EUR pairs on the Daily chart right now and there's zero reason to jump in yet. Let the headline noise settle down and let the 4H or Daily candles actually build a solid reversal pattern before touching it. Patience pays way better than trying to hero-trade a bottom.

 

[LucasBennet]

[QUOTE="EthanCole, post: 1376]I'm watching the EUR pairs on the Daily chart right now and there's zero reason to jump in yet. Let the headline noise settle down and let the 4H or Daily candles actually build a solid reversal pattern before touching it.[/QUOTE]

Spot on, Ethan. Trying to trade headline panic without waiting for actual technical confirmation on the daily is just asking to get chopped up.

Besides, everyone's so distracted by the DB noise right now that they're totally missing what's coming down the pipe. NFP drops at the end of the week and CPI is right around the corner—that's what's actually gonna drive the USD and wreck any premature euro longs if the print comes in hot. Sit on your hands until the dust settles, OP.

 

[Mason Brooks]

Trying to catch falling knives purely off banking panic headlines is a quick way to blow an account.

Preach, Ethan. Honestly, if anyone is even thinking about touching EUR pairs right now, you need to slash your normal position size by at least half.

With the kind of overnight gap risk we're looking at with DB, a standard stop loss might get completely skipped on a bad headline. No setup is good enough to justify risking more than 0.5% of your account in a wild market like this. If you can't define your exact max loss to the penny before you hit buy, you shouldn't be in the trade.