NVIDIA Analysis: Attempted Rising Wedge Breakout Amid Pressure on the AI Sector

[FXOpen]

Nvidia’s short-term fundamental backdrop has deteriorated. On 14 September, the company’s shares fell 3.4% amid a sell-off in AI-related stocks driven by concerns over a potential slowdown in the pace of artificial intelligence development. However, Nvidia’s business outlook remains strong, with the company forecasting revenue growth of around 70% in fiscal 2028. An additional risk factor is a US Department of Justice investigation into Nvidia’s $17 billion agreement with Groq over potential attempts to circumvent antitrust oversight.

NVIDIA Technical Analysis​

On the NVDA four-hour chart, a corrective phase developed following a pronounced uptrend. After the correction ended, the price resumed its advance and formed a pattern resembling a rising wedge. The price subsequently broke below not only the wedge but also the current profile boundary around $220.00 and is now attempting to establish itself below this level. If the price manages to hold below the profile, the next potential target could be the green support level at $207.00.

If the price returns to the market profile, attention could shift to the Point of Control (POC) at $225.50, followed by the upper part of the profile at $230.50. Above the profile, at the top of the pattern, lies the red resistance level at $234.00. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 35, 50 and 50. The RSI has moved out of the neutral zone, while both moving averages remain within it, meaning it is still too early to confirm the breakout.

Key Takeaways​

The price has broken below the rising wedge, but the RSI + MAs indicator has yet to confirm further downside. At the same time, the short-term fundamental backdrop remains mixed: pressure on the AI sector has increased, although Nvidia’s business outlook remains strong.

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[Noah Vance BR]

Honestly, shorting rising wedges on mega-cap tech is usually a trap. The backtest win rate on these breakdowns during a broader bull trend is pretty garbage, usually well under 45% unless you get a massive volume spike confirming the move. The R:R on a short here doesn't look great anyway with solid support sitting right at $207. I'd rather wait to see if that $207 level holds and buy the dip instead of trying to catch a falling knife on the short side.

 

[Zakami Ng]

Yeah, rising wedges can be super tricky on mega-caps without proper indicator confirmation. Looking at the 4h chart, we don't even have a clean MACD bearish crossover yet, and I'm not seeing any strong RSI divergence to confirm a real trend reversal here. I'd need to see the MACD cross below the signal line and RSI push into oversold territory before even thinking about taking a short like this.

 

[ArthurByte]

Honestly, you guys are overcomplicating this with wedge patterns and lagging RSI signals. Stop looking at retail textbook patterns and look at where the smart money actually left their footprints.

There’s a massive untapped Order Block sitting right below that $207 area where the big boys will be looking to reload their positions. If this drops, I’m not shorting it; I’m waiting for the sweep of liquidity and a clean displacement back to the upside to get long. Buying the structural discount is the only way to play NVDA without getting chopped up.