Trade Idea Anyone else noticing Yen weakness is almost purely happening offshore lately?

[Mark Sterling 81]

Been digging into some order flow data and saw an analysis confirming something I've been suspecting for a bit. Basically, almost all the Yen downside we've seen since the start of 2025 has been concentrated strictly in offshore hours. London and NY desks are the ones dumping JPY, while Tokyo session price action has been strangely quiet or even grinding back slightly stronger.

Ngl, this completely messes with how I usually trade the Asian session ranges on USD/JPY. If domestic participants aren't the ones bidding the pair through major resistance levels and it's all offshore momentum chasing liquidity pockets, it makes me wonder how sustainable these trend breakouts actually are. Are we looking at genuine macro accumulation during the NY overlap, or are these moves just ripe for mean reversion scalps once Asia wakes up and refuses to push price any higher?

Are you guys fading these late NY pushes into key S/R, or are you holding runners assuming London will just keep the bid alive the next day?

 

[Noah Vance BR]

Spot on. Look at the Tokyo fix vs London hours lately, it's brutal. Domestic accounts are staying sidelined or even buying on dips, while the offshore flows are just relentlessly hammering it down.

Hard to scale a short here though with the intervention threat hanging over us. The R:R just looks completely cooked unless we get a clean break of the range.