Anyone actually buying this 49k Dow bearish EW call or is it a total trap?

[Mark Vance]

I just saw the latest technical outlook for Dow futures targeting a move down to 49570 and I honestly have to laugh. These Elliott Wave guys are at it again with their "double three corrective structures" and "wave x" counts, trying to convince everyone that the sky is falling. Ngl, it feels like every time we get a tiny bit of red on the screen, the bears come crawling out with these overly complicated charts to justify shorting a market that has been incredibly resilient. We’ve seen this script before where the chartists call for a massive move down and then the market just grinds sideways or pushes back toward the ATH like nothing even happened.

Mate, trying to trade these hyper-specific EW targets is a one-way ticket to getting your stops hunted. If you’re sitting there waiting for 49570 while the bulls are looking for any excuse to buy the dip, you’re probably going to get left behind in a massive fomo squeeze. I’ve seen way too many traders get wrecked trying to scalp these "bearish cycles" instead of just following the actual trend. Why would we bet against the YM right now when the macro strength hasn't actually shifted? It feels like these bearish outlooks are just trying to manifest a crash that simply isn't on the cards.

Are we really going to trust a "double three" sequence over the massive buy-side liquidity we see every single time we dip even a few hundred points?