Brent hitting that $110 wall hard – are we looking at a reversal?

[Robert Vance]

Man, Brent crude just cannot catch a break above that $110 mark. We saw that massive 4% rip on Friday and it felt like we were finally going to clear those pesky September highs, but it looks like the sellers were just waiting in the bushes. That $110 zone is proving to be a nightmare psychological level and it’s clearly loaded with sell orders every time we get close. I was almost ready to go long on the breakout, but glad I didn't FOMO in at the top because this pullback is already starting to heat up.

The news about Trump lifting those sanctions and tariffs on Russia basically pulled the rug out from under the immediate supply concerns. It’s definitely providing some temporary relief to the upside pressure we saw last week and caught a few of the bulls off guard. I'm staring at the charts trying to figure out if this is just a quick scalp opportunity on the short side or if the macro shift is actually enough to send us back down to test deeper support levels. The order flow looks a bit messy right now with the news still being digested, but that rejection from a five-month high is a pretty loud signal to stay cautious.

NGL, I'm a bit torn on whether this is a legitimate "buy the dip" scenario or if the momentum is dead for the next few weeks. If we can't find some solid footing soon, I could see us sliding back toward the mid-100s quite fast. I’m looking at the hourly candles and the volume is definitely picking up on the red side.

Where are you guys seeing the next major support level if this $110 rejection sticks?

 

[Owen Carter 27]

That $110 level is definitely looking like a graveyard for the bulls right now. I’ve been watching the daily candle on Brent and that wick rejection is screaming distribution to me. If we can't close back above that resistance by the end of the week, I’m looking for a retest of the $100 psychological level. Keep it simple, guys—price doesn't lie, and right now it's telling us there's no interest in paying higher.

 

[Noah Vance BR]

That $110 level is definitely looking like a graveyard for the bulls right now. I’ve been watching the daily candle on Brent and that wick rejection is screaming distribution to me.

@Owen Carter 27 I’m seeing the same thing on the tape, but I'd be careful calling it a graveyard just yet. I ran a quick backtest on similar three-tap rejections at major psychological levels for Brent over the last five years, and the probability of a move back to $100 is sitting right around 44%. It's not a slam dunk, but the R:R is what makes it interesting. If you’re shorting here with a stop just above $112, you're looking at a 1:5 trade if we hit that $100 target. I’m leaning towards a small position, but I need to see the volatility contract a bit more before I'm comfortable with the size. Price action looks heavy for sure, but the data says it could still chop and frustrate the shorts before any real leg down.

 

[Zakami Ng]

I ran a quick backtest on similar three-tap rejections at major psychological levels for Brent over the last five years, and the probability of a move back to $100 is sitting right around 44%.

@Noah Vance BR man I wouldn't trust those backtest odds right now because the momentum indicators are flashing way worse than a 44% chance of a pullback. Look at the daily RSI on Brent—we've got a massive bearish divergence printing while price tapped $110, plus the MACD just put in a textbook bearish crossover right at the histogram peak. Volume is completely drying up on these pushes higher too. Even if the chop gets annoying first, I'm leaning heavy short here because those momentum signals don't usually lie when we hit a wall like this.