BTC hitting major resistance - are we squeezing or sweeping the lows?

[OptionMaven7196]

Hey guys, looking at the daily close and all the latest macro noise popping up, I'm trying to map out our next logical move. We've been chopping around this tight range for what feels like ages, and the order flow on the major books is looking incredibly spoof-heavy today. I'm seeing massive sell walls stacked just below the local resistance, but funding rates are actually starting to cool down a bit, which makes me wonder if a nasty short squeeze is cooking in the background.

Ngl, I'm hesitating to open any heavy swing positions right here. If we lose the current support level we've been clinging to, we could easily see a quick liquidation cascade down to the weekly EMA. On the flip side, if the bulls can absorb this overhead supply and push past the current block, we might finally get that momentum we need to push back toward the ATH. I'm mainly scalping the lower timeframes right now because the order book depth is so thin and these sudden regulatory headlines keep messing with the trend.

Where are you guys placing your bids today? Do you think we have enough momentum to clear this overhead resistance, or are we set for another sweep of the range lows first?

 

[Noah Vance BR]

Honestly, chasing the breakout here is a negative EV play. Backtesting these high-compression ranges shows that buying the breakout has a terrible win rate and awful R:R because of how often we get deviations before the actual expansion. I'm keeping my hands off the buy button until we sweep those range lows, as the probability of a liquidity grab down there before any sustained move up is just too high to ignore.