GBPUSD ready to roll over here? Looking at key support levels ahead of US CPI

[Marcus Vance 68]

Alright guys, been watching this Cable rally closely over the last few sessions, but ngl, I'm starting to get some serious doubts about whether this upside has legs. We’ve been riding the wave of that cautious BoE hawkishness and a generally softer greenback, but Pill’s latest comments basically saying the market's getting ahead of itself with rate hike pricing are a bit of a red flag. Now we've got US inflation prints dropping soon, and if the numbers come in hot, the DXY is going to wake right back up and snatch that yield advantage straight back.

From a price action standpoint, I'm trying to map out where the trapped liquidity is sitting right now. Are we just seeing a bull trap near current resistance before a sharp sweep lower, or is the order flow still heavily skewed to the buy side? If DXY catches a bid off this macro data, I want to know where you lot are eyeing the first major structural support level to test some longs, or if you're looking to fade the highs for a quick scalp down.

Anyone else scaling out of their GBP longs here, or are you holding through the CPI print?

 

[ArthurByte]

Honestly, I wouldn't be betting on a rollover just yet. If you look at the 4H, we’ve got a massive bullish OB sitting right at the liquidity sweep from yesterday, and the market hasn't even tapped into that FVG below 1.2650 properly. I'm waiting for the CPI spike to wick into that zone so I can get long with a tight stop. It’s way too risky to short into that kind of buy-side imbalance before the news drops. Stay patient, let the algo grab the liquidity first.

 

[Noah Vance BR]

I'm waiting for the CPI spike to wick into that zone so I can get long with a tight stop.

Man, trying to catch a CPI spike with a tight stop is an absolute EV killer.

I backtested holding/entering through US CPI across 5 years of tick data on Cable, and even if your directional bias is right 55-60% of the time, slippage on tight stops completely destroys the expected value. The spread widens so much in those first few seconds that your hard stop gets hit way worse than quoted. Better off letting the initial variance clear out and taking a retest 15-30 mins post-release when you can actually calculate a realistic R:R.

 

[Owen Carter 27]

You guys are overcomplicating this with all the alphabet soup lol.

Just look at the raw chart. 1.2700 has been clear horizontal resistance for weeks and we’ve been printing nasty upper wicks on the daily every time price pokes into it. That said, trying to position right before CPI drops is asking for trouble.

Let the news candle wipe out the impatient traders first. If we get a solid rejection candle and a clean close back below resistance once the dust settles, I'll happily take the short. Simple as that.

 

[JulianCraft]

I’m honestly surprised you guys are even looking at long setups here. Have we forgotten that the Fed is basically trapped? Every time we get a decent print, the market acts like we’re out of the woods, but inflation is stickier than a cheap suit. I think the greenback is going to catch a massive bid if CPI comes in even a hair hot, and that’s going to drag Cable down regardless of your "bullish order blocks."

@Owen Carter 27, I’m with you on the horizontal resistance, but I think you’re being too optimistic thinking it’s just a technical play. Once the market realizes the Fed isn't pivoting anytime soon, those support levels are going to crumble like a house of cards. I’m just waiting for the pop to sell into the strength. Why try to catch a falling knife when the macro trend is begging to go lower?

 

[Zakami Ng]

I'm with @Owen Carter 27 on this one, keep it simple. Everyone is getting way too caught up in the news noise, but if you actually look at the 4H, the RSI is showing some nasty bearish divergence while price is grinding against that resistance. If we get a MACD crossover back to the downside right after CPI hits, that’s all the confirmation I need to short it. Let the news move the candles, but the indicators usually tip their hand before the breakout actually sustains. Just don't get chopped up trying to guess the initial reaction.

 

[EthanCole]

@Owen Carter 27 is spot on here, honestly. Everyone's overcomplicating things trying to trade the actual CPI print when the smart play is just sitting on hands until the dust settles.

I'm looking at the daily chart and there's zero reason to force a trade right now. Let the high-impact news wipe out the guys trading with tight stops, wait for a proper 4H close, and then see what the market's actually telling us. No point in trying to guess the initial casino candle. Just protect your capital and stay patient.