Thomas Reed
New member
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2026
- Messages
- 1
Was looking at the charts with my morning coffee today and I just have to laugh at how fast the retail crowd flips bias. Cable pushes up for three straight days, probes past 1.3406, and suddenly everyone on FinTwit and the chatrooms is screaming about a massive structural breakout. Look, I get it. Green candles trigger the fomo. But as someone who's been holding longer-term swing positions and watching these macro cycles unfold for over a decade, this latest move in GBPUSD smells like a classic liquidity trap.
Everyone is hyping up the narrative that the buck is cooked because of some short-term "AI nervousness" and that massive surge in US Treasuries we just saw to cap off October. Sure, bonds had their biggest rally since early 2024, yeilds pulled back hard, and the dollar took a temporary punch in the gut. But since when do we start rewriting a multi-month macro trend based on three days of USD weakness and headlines about tech sector jitters? That's classic noise. If you're zooming in on the 5m or 15m charts scalping every pip, fine, enjoy the short momentum. But if you're trying to build a real position here, buying right under heavy overhead resistence seems like a fast track to getting rekt.
Let's actually look at where Cable is trading right now on the daily. We're probing up into 1.3406, which is just the 50% retracement of the descend from 1.3675 down to 1.3136. Right above that you've got the October 22 high sitting at 1.3418, the 200DMA hanging around 1.3428, and the top of the daily cloud up at 1.3440. That is a massive wall of supply. You really think bulls are just gonna slice through four major technical barriers at once on zero real fundamental catalyst from the UK side? Imho, no chance.
This whole setup actually reminded me of a painful trade I took back in 2022. I remember getting tricked by a nearly identical fakeout on gpbusd where we had a three-day pump right into a cloud top and the 200DMA after a sharp selloff. I got impatient, ruined my long-term DCA plan, and tried to chase the momentum right at the peak because the headline noise sounded so convincing. Boom, two days later the market dumped 300 pips and hit my stoploss before I could even re-adjust my position. Learned my lesson the hard way back then: never buy a relief rally straight into a cluster of major moving averages unless macro fundamentals have violently shifted.
I actually ran a quick test setup on my paper account this morning just to track the orderflow around 1.3415 to see if sellers were absorbing the buy pressure. Sure enough, every time gbp tries to push past 1.3410, the volume spikes on the ask and it gets immediately rejected. It looks way less like institutional accumulation and way more like a short squeeze clearing out late bears before the real trend resumes.
If you follow Elliott Wave at all, the structure on the 1-hour chart makes total sense. The initial leg lower from the August peak completed down at 1.314 as a clean Wave A. What we are seeing right now is just a choppy, three-wave Wave B corrective recovery. It's meant to trick people into buying the top. Once this B-wave finishes exhausting itself around this 1.3420-1.3440 resistence zone, the wave C leg down should take over and drag us right back down toward 1.3100 or lower.
The macro backdrop hasn't magically turned super bullish for the UK economy overnight just because US Treasury yields dropped for a week. The Fed is still navigating a tricky path, inflation sticky points exist everywhere, and chasing GBP at the top of a technical cloud setup feels like financial suicide for long term investors. I'm sitting on my hands, ignoring the media noise, and looking for high-probability short re-entries rather than chasing this brief spike.
Are you guys actually buying Cable at the 200DMA here, or are you waiting for the rollover like me?
Everyone is hyping up the narrative that the buck is cooked because of some short-term "AI nervousness" and that massive surge in US Treasuries we just saw to cap off October. Sure, bonds had their biggest rally since early 2024, yeilds pulled back hard, and the dollar took a temporary punch in the gut. But since when do we start rewriting a multi-month macro trend based on three days of USD weakness and headlines about tech sector jitters? That's classic noise. If you're zooming in on the 5m or 15m charts scalping every pip, fine, enjoy the short momentum. But if you're trying to build a real position here, buying right under heavy overhead resistence seems like a fast track to getting rekt.
Let's actually look at where Cable is trading right now on the daily. We're probing up into 1.3406, which is just the 50% retracement of the descend from 1.3675 down to 1.3136. Right above that you've got the October 22 high sitting at 1.3418, the 200DMA hanging around 1.3428, and the top of the daily cloud up at 1.3440. That is a massive wall of supply. You really think bulls are just gonna slice through four major technical barriers at once on zero real fundamental catalyst from the UK side? Imho, no chance.
This whole setup actually reminded me of a painful trade I took back in 2022. I remember getting tricked by a nearly identical fakeout on gpbusd where we had a three-day pump right into a cloud top and the 200DMA after a sharp selloff. I got impatient, ruined my long-term DCA plan, and tried to chase the momentum right at the peak because the headline noise sounded so convincing. Boom, two days later the market dumped 300 pips and hit my stoploss before I could even re-adjust my position. Learned my lesson the hard way back then: never buy a relief rally straight into a cluster of major moving averages unless macro fundamentals have violently shifted.
I actually ran a quick test setup on my paper account this morning just to track the orderflow around 1.3415 to see if sellers were absorbing the buy pressure. Sure enough, every time gbp tries to push past 1.3410, the volume spikes on the ask and it gets immediately rejected. It looks way less like institutional accumulation and way more like a short squeeze clearing out late bears before the real trend resumes.
If you follow Elliott Wave at all, the structure on the 1-hour chart makes total sense. The initial leg lower from the August peak completed down at 1.314 as a clean Wave A. What we are seeing right now is just a choppy, three-wave Wave B corrective recovery. It's meant to trick people into buying the top. Once this B-wave finishes exhausting itself around this 1.3420-1.3440 resistence zone, the wave C leg down should take over and drag us right back down toward 1.3100 or lower.
The macro backdrop hasn't magically turned super bullish for the UK economy overnight just because US Treasury yields dropped for a week. The Fed is still navigating a tricky path, inflation sticky points exist everywhere, and chasing GBP at the top of a technical cloud setup feels like financial suicide for long term investors. I'm sitting on my hands, ignoring the media noise, and looking for high-probability short re-entries rather than chasing this brief spike.
Are you guys actually buying Cable at the 200DMA here, or are you waiting for the rollover like me?
