Is it too late to jump on the coffee trade?

[BlueChip42]

Hey everyone, I’ve been watching the charts lately and noticed Arabica coffee hit an all-time high. I keep seeing headlines about the tariff situation with Colombia and the U.S. and it’s honestly super confusing. I thought prices might drop once the threats were withdrawn, but instead, it seems like things are just going vertical.

I’m still pretty new to commodity trading and feeling a bit of FOMO looking at these candles. Is this just a temporary spike because of the news, or is there something bigger driving this movement? I’m worried about getting trapped if I try to scalp this now while it’s at the top. For those of you who have been trading softs for a while, do you think I should hold off until the dust settles or is this trend actually sustainable?

 

[Mason Brooks]

Man, chasing vertical candles in softs is a great way to blow up an account. If you're feeling FOMO right now, that's your cue to step away from the screen, not ape in at the absolute highs. Supply chain headlines and tariff noise are way too volatile to be guessing tops—if you do take a stab at it, make sure your stop loss is stupidly tight because these parabolic moves usually end in a massive washout.

 

[LeoSterling]

Bro if you're asking if it's too late on a vertical chart, you're already exit liquidity. That SL hit is gonna hurt. Just touch grass.

 

[JulianCraft]

Honestly, if you're looking at sticky inflation numbers and what the Fed is about to do to liquidity, chasing commodities right here is a total trap. People are ignoring how high rates are staying, and once demand rolls over, these parabolic runs in softs are going to bleed out painfully. I'm sitting on cash and staying far away from the long side.

 

[Zakami Ng]

Lol yeah everyone rushing in right at the highs is just asking to get wrecked. I'm looking at the daily RSI and it's practically screaming overbought with some nasty bearish divergence forming, plus the MACD histogram is starting to roll over hard. Definitely not chasing this up here.