M
Michael Vance 65
Guest
Honestly, looking at my terminal this morning, I had to rub my eyes a bit. The Brent rally is getting all the headlines again, everyone is screaming about Yemen and Iran like it’s the end of days, and the fomo crowd is absolutely foaming at the mouth to jump in at these levels. It’s the same old dance we’ve seen a dozen times before. The news cycle pushes a geopolitical narrative, the retail stops get blown out on both sides, and the smart money just waits for the inevitable wick to fill.
I was sitting there with my coffee at 4 AM, staring at the 113.20 level on the Brent chart. It’s a joke, right? We’ve seen this resistance hold wave after wave since March. I’ve got a small position I’ve been holding for a long-term swing, but watching the way people are reacting to these headlines makes me want to trim it, not add to it. I learned the hard way a few years back during the crude crash that trying to DCA into a parabolic move based on "geopolitical fear" is the fastest way to get rekt. You buy the news, you get the exit liquidity treatment.
It’s hilarious to me that while oil is hitting these highs, US yields are sitting at three-week lows waiting on the Fed. You have one side of the street pricing in total war and the other side pricing in a central bank pivot. The market can’t be right about both forever. Whenever you see this kind of divergence, the macro "noise" is usually just a veil for a massive shakeout. I see guys in the discord chat talking about scalp-buying the breakout above 113, and all I can think about is the liquidity pool sitting just below the daily support at 106.
I remember back in 2020, I tried to catch a falling knife in energy when everyone said the world was changing forever. I held through the drawdown, averaged down, and yeah, I eventually came out green, but the mental tax was not worth the stress. Watching this move now, it feels synthetic. It’s too loud. The volume profile at these highs is screaming for a retest of the lower support zones before anything real happens. Everyone is so obsessed with the "steep rally" that they forget markets don’t go up in a straight line, especially not when the fundamental narrative is this bloated.
If this was really a structural breakout, we wouldn't see the wave analysis looking this shaky at the resistance zones. It looks like a classic trap for the momentum traders who think they can ride the Iran news to the moon. I’m just sitting on my hands. I’ve seen this play out too many times to get excited. If it breaks, let it break, but don't expect me to be the one providing the exit liquidity for the institutional whales who built their positions months ago.
Are you guys actually buying into this "geopolitical spike" narrative, or are you waiting for the inevitable rug pull back to the 106 range? Seems like a trap to me.
I was sitting there with my coffee at 4 AM, staring at the 113.20 level on the Brent chart. It’s a joke, right? We’ve seen this resistance hold wave after wave since March. I’ve got a small position I’ve been holding for a long-term swing, but watching the way people are reacting to these headlines makes me want to trim it, not add to it. I learned the hard way a few years back during the crude crash that trying to DCA into a parabolic move based on "geopolitical fear" is the fastest way to get rekt. You buy the news, you get the exit liquidity treatment.
It’s hilarious to me that while oil is hitting these highs, US yields are sitting at three-week lows waiting on the Fed. You have one side of the street pricing in total war and the other side pricing in a central bank pivot. The market can’t be right about both forever. Whenever you see this kind of divergence, the macro "noise" is usually just a veil for a massive shakeout. I see guys in the discord chat talking about scalp-buying the breakout above 113, and all I can think about is the liquidity pool sitting just below the daily support at 106.
I remember back in 2020, I tried to catch a falling knife in energy when everyone said the world was changing forever. I held through the drawdown, averaged down, and yeah, I eventually came out green, but the mental tax was not worth the stress. Watching this move now, it feels synthetic. It’s too loud. The volume profile at these highs is screaming for a retest of the lower support zones before anything real happens. Everyone is so obsessed with the "steep rally" that they forget markets don’t go up in a straight line, especially not when the fundamental narrative is this bloated.
If this was really a structural breakout, we wouldn't see the wave analysis looking this shaky at the resistance zones. It looks like a classic trap for the momentum traders who think they can ride the Iran news to the moon. I’m just sitting on my hands. I’ve seen this play out too many times to get excited. If it breaks, let it break, but don't expect me to be the one providing the exit liquidity for the institutional whales who built their positions months ago.
Are you guys actually buying into this "geopolitical spike" narrative, or are you waiting for the inevitable rug pull back to the 106 range? Seems like a trap to me.
