Value Investor Tom
New member
- Joined
- Nov 2, 2026
- Messages
- 1
Yo guys, I’ve been staring at these candles since about 4am and honestly my eyes are bleeding but the setup is finally forming. Can we just talk about how much of a trap "Uptober" turned out to be? Everyone and thier mother was screaming about moon season because it’s October, but the mkt just doesnt care about your seasonal memes anymore. We just saw BTC lose another 7.3% this month. That’s two years in a row now where the "historically strong" October returns just evaporated. It’s basically Hacktober at this point. If you were blindly longing the "Uptober" narrative without looking at the volume profile, you probably got absolutely rekt.
I’m looking at the daily chart right now and the price action is messy as hell, but there is a silver lining if you know where to look. We are currently sitting right on a major support shelf that has held up since the summer. I tried to front-run a bounce at the $64k level earlier this month—classic fomo move, honestly—and I got stopped out so fast it made my head spin. Lost about 2.5% of my total port on that one trade alone just because I didn't wait for the candle close. This morning though, I’m seeing something different. The RSI is starting to show some hidden bullish divergence on the 4H timeframe, even while the price is making lower lows.
The macro side of this is even weirder. Did yall see that Deutsche Bank report about the "AI dollar"? They’re basically arguing that the US dollar is entering this new era where AI productivity is going to keep the greenback super strong regardless of what the Fed does. It’s a total headwind for crypto. If the dollar stays this aggressive because of "AI supremacy" or whatever, our btc bags are gonna have a hard time breaking out of this range. But then you look at the FX markets and things are shifting. Sterling (GBP) is actually catching a bid today because of those Iran diplomacy bets. The dollar is slipping just a tiny bit as the geopolitical tension cools off for a minute, and that’s giving the pound some room to breathe. I actually took a quick scalp on GBP/USD this morning when it hit that 1.2950 level. It wasn't much, but it felt good to actually see green after the BTC bloodbath.
Anyway back to the charts. If you look at the weekly, we’re forming this massive falling wedge. It’s ugly, and it’s slow, and it’s boring, but those are usually the ones that pay out the most if you have the patience to DCA through the chop. I’m not saying we’re going to $100k tomorrow—honestley I think we might see one more flush down to the $58k region to clear out all the late shorters before we see any real reversal. The liquidation heatmap is glowing bright red right around that level. If I were a market maker, that’s exactly where I’d be hunting for liquidity.
I’ve been testing this new EMA cross strategy on the 1H chart just to see if I can catch the local bottom, and it’s been hit or miss. The problem is the volatility is so low right now that the indicators are just giving false signals left and right. It’s a "chop-fest" as my old mentor used to say. I remember back in '24 I would have been overleveraged and crying right now, but I’ve learned my lesson about keeping my position sizes small when the trend is this indecisive. You really have to keep your stoploss tight or the market will just eat your lunch and ask for seconds.
Look at the volume bars. They are pathetic. There is no conviction behind these moves. We’re just drifting. But that’s usually when the big whales start thier accumulation. If you look at the exchange outflows, people are still moving thier coins into cold storage. The supply is getting thinner and thinner even if the price doesn't reflect it yet. It’s like a spring being coiled tighter and tighter. When it snaps, it’s gonna be violent.
I’m watching the $62,500 level like a hawk. If we can flip that back into support on a high-volume 4H candle, then I’m going back in heavy. Until then, I’m just sitting on my hands and maybe doing some light scalping on the pound if the dollar keeps wobbling on this Iran news. The "AI dollar" thing is definitely something to watch long-term though. If the US really does decouple from the rest of the world because of thier tech lead, the old-school correlations between crypto and the DXY might be broken forever.
Does anyone else feel like these seasonal patterns are just a total scam at this point? I feel like as soon as everyone expects a "green October" or "Santa rally," the big players just use it as an opportunity to dump thier bags on retail. I’m tired of the influencers pumping these "historical" stats that clearly don't work anymore in this new mkt regime. Anyway, I’m gonna go grab another coffee and see if we lose this support level or if the bulls finally find thier balls.
What are you guys seeing on the depth charts? Anyone else getting those "something big is coming" tingles or am I just sleep deprived again?
I’m looking at the daily chart right now and the price action is messy as hell, but there is a silver lining if you know where to look. We are currently sitting right on a major support shelf that has held up since the summer. I tried to front-run a bounce at the $64k level earlier this month—classic fomo move, honestly—and I got stopped out so fast it made my head spin. Lost about 2.5% of my total port on that one trade alone just because I didn't wait for the candle close. This morning though, I’m seeing something different. The RSI is starting to show some hidden bullish divergence on the 4H timeframe, even while the price is making lower lows.
The macro side of this is even weirder. Did yall see that Deutsche Bank report about the "AI dollar"? They’re basically arguing that the US dollar is entering this new era where AI productivity is going to keep the greenback super strong regardless of what the Fed does. It’s a total headwind for crypto. If the dollar stays this aggressive because of "AI supremacy" or whatever, our btc bags are gonna have a hard time breaking out of this range. But then you look at the FX markets and things are shifting. Sterling (GBP) is actually catching a bid today because of those Iran diplomacy bets. The dollar is slipping just a tiny bit as the geopolitical tension cools off for a minute, and that’s giving the pound some room to breathe. I actually took a quick scalp on GBP/USD this morning when it hit that 1.2950 level. It wasn't much, but it felt good to actually see green after the BTC bloodbath.
Anyway back to the charts. If you look at the weekly, we’re forming this massive falling wedge. It’s ugly, and it’s slow, and it’s boring, but those are usually the ones that pay out the most if you have the patience to DCA through the chop. I’m not saying we’re going to $100k tomorrow—honestley I think we might see one more flush down to the $58k region to clear out all the late shorters before we see any real reversal. The liquidation heatmap is glowing bright red right around that level. If I were a market maker, that’s exactly where I’d be hunting for liquidity.
I’ve been testing this new EMA cross strategy on the 1H chart just to see if I can catch the local bottom, and it’s been hit or miss. The problem is the volatility is so low right now that the indicators are just giving false signals left and right. It’s a "chop-fest" as my old mentor used to say. I remember back in '24 I would have been overleveraged and crying right now, but I’ve learned my lesson about keeping my position sizes small when the trend is this indecisive. You really have to keep your stoploss tight or the market will just eat your lunch and ask for seconds.
Look at the volume bars. They are pathetic. There is no conviction behind these moves. We’re just drifting. But that’s usually when the big whales start thier accumulation. If you look at the exchange outflows, people are still moving thier coins into cold storage. The supply is getting thinner and thinner even if the price doesn't reflect it yet. It’s like a spring being coiled tighter and tighter. When it snaps, it’s gonna be violent.
I’m watching the $62,500 level like a hawk. If we can flip that back into support on a high-volume 4H candle, then I’m going back in heavy. Until then, I’m just sitting on my hands and maybe doing some light scalping on the pound if the dollar keeps wobbling on this Iran news. The "AI dollar" thing is definitely something to watch long-term though. If the US really does decouple from the rest of the world because of thier tech lead, the old-school correlations between crypto and the DXY might be broken forever.
Does anyone else feel like these seasonal patterns are just a total scam at this point? I feel like as soon as everyone expects a "green October" or "Santa rally," the big players just use it as an opportunity to dump thier bags on retail. I’m tired of the influencers pumping these "historical" stats that clearly don't work anymore in this new mkt regime. Anyway, I’m gonna go grab another coffee and see if we lose this support level or if the bulls finally find thier balls.
What are you guys seeing on the depth charts? Anyone else getting those "something big is coming" tingles or am I just sleep deprived again?
