USDMXN bouncing back, but is the carry trade actually dead?

VantagePoint7

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Sep 18, 2026
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Ngl, been watching the USDMXN charts all week and the price action has been pretty wild. Seeing the Peso claw back a bit of ground today is nice if you were caught on the wrong side of the move, but a 3% weekly drawdown is a massive red flag. It feels like the carry trade unwind is finally hitting a tipping point with that rate differential shrinking back to 2015 levels.

I’m trying to figure out if this bounce is just a relief scalp or if we’re actually seeing some decent support holding up here. The order flow has been consistently heavy on the sell side for MXN, and I’m curious if you guys think we’ve already hit the local exhaustion point or if we should be bracing for a deeper slide once the weak hands get shaken out. Are you guys looking to fade this recovery, or do you think the macro setup is still too bearish to catch this falling knife?
 
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