Are people seriously buying this Rupee rally?

[VelocityCapital]

Everyone in the daily threads is already popping champagne because INR gained a few pips today, pinning it on softer US yields and the RBI pulling out some fresh regulatory band-aids. Guys, ngl, this feels like an absolute bull trap for anyone getting fomo on the Rupee right now.

The market is acting like the central bank found a permanent cheat code, but intervening to prop up the currency is just burning firepower while masking structural pressure. Soft US Treasury yields are temporary noise, and the second we get another sticky inflation print from the States, yields will bounce and USD/INR is going right back to testing all-time highs. Betting on the dollar suddenly rolling over for good here is pure cope.

I’m honestly looking at this little green day for the Rupee as a prime reload opportunity to buy the dollar dip rather than a genuine macro reversal. Scalp the intraday volatility if that’s your game, but holding heavy long INR exposure into this kind of global uncertainty seems wild to me.

Are you guys actually buying this RBI-fueled strength, or are you fading this bounce with me?

 

[Zakami Ng]

I wouldn't touch this move with a ten-foot pole. If you pull up the daily, the RSI is screaming bearish divergence while the price keeps grinding higher, which is a classic trap. I’m waiting for a clean MACD crossover back to the downside before I even consider loading up on shorts. Everyone piling in now is just exit liquidity for the big boys.