Everyone is betting on the loonie collapse but I’m not so sure

[Lucas Bennett 77]

Honestly, it feels like half the board is rushing to short the CAD right now because of the USD rally, but are we really looking at the same charts? Everyone is screaming that the loonie is dead in the water, but they seem to be ignoring the fact that we’ve been hovering at these "lows" for a while now without a total breakdown. It’s like the market is desperate to price in a disaster that just keeps failing to materialize.

I’m seeing a lot of FOMO from the bears, but usually, when the sentiment gets this lopsided, the big money is looking for a reason to trap everyone. If we’ve got this much pressure and the pair still won't crack significantly lower, maybe we should be asking ourselves if the downside is actually exhausted. I’m thinking about looking for a long entry if we get one more fake-out to the downside. Is anyone else actually considering a contrarian long here, or are we all just waiting for the parity ship to sink?

 

[LeoSterling]

Everyone is so convinced the CAD is going to zero that it's actually starting to look like a massive liquidity grab waiting to happen. You know how it goes—once the last retail bear piles in at the lows, that's exactly when the rug pull happens in the other direction. I’m staying patient, but if we see a wick down that gets reclaimed quick, I’m absolutely aping into a long. Don’t get rekt by the consensus.

 

[Owen Carter 27]

Spot on. Everyone's chasing the breakout but forgetting that price needs to actually clear those lows to sustain a move. I’ve been watching the daily timeframe and we’re just sitting on a massive horizontal support shelf. If the bears can’t push it through with all this momentum, it’s clearly just fuel for a reversal. I’m waiting for a clean bullish engulfing or a solid rejection wick before I even think about touching the buy button, but the setup is definitely looking like a trap. Don't be the liquidity.