Everyone is calling the coffee top, but are we missing the real play?

[Mark Henderson]

Ngl, the sentiment in here regarding these coffee prices has been absolutely wild today. Everyone’s acting like this Arabica ATH is just some temporary spike because of the headlines about Colombia and the tariff drama. You’ve got people shouting "sell the news" and screaming that the bubble is about to pop now that the threat is off the table, but I’m honestly starting to think everyone is missing the forest for the trees.

If you’ve been trading long enough, you know the market loves to front-run the panic. Just because the geopolitical tension cooled down doesn't mean the supply chains aren't structurally wrecked. We’re seeing massive FOMO from retail traders trying to scalp a reversal, but the institutional money seems to be looking at the underlying yield issues that have nothing to do with what the President said yesterday. I’m not saying we don’t pull back, but betting against a trend just because the news cycle shifted feels like trying to catch a falling knife in reverse. Are we really convinced the price is purely narrative-driven, or are we ignoring the fundamentals that were pushing these highs before the tariffs even made the front page?

 

[JulianCraft]

Spot on. People get blinded by the daily headlines and totally forget about the structural mess underneath. Input costs and weather damage aren't just going to magically fix themselves because some politician gave a speech. If anything, the rate environment is going to keep putting the squeeze on producers anyway. I'm definitely not touching the short side here.

 

[Zakami Ng]

Totally agree with you guys, retail is just chasing headlines right now without looking at the actual charts. If you pull up the daily, that RSI divergence is screaming exhaustion on the lower timeframes, but the weekly MACD crossover is still firmly bullish. I'm staying patient and waiting for a proper retest of support before jumping back in long.