Loonie acting weird again, trade surplus ignored

[TrendPulse]

Morning everyone, watching the USD/CAD charts this morning and honestly, I am scratching my head a bit. We got that surprise trade surplus out of Canada, which normally would give the loonie a nice little pump, but instead the currency is just bleeding out and touching these 18-month lows. It is a classic reminder of why macro news can totally trap you if you are only looking at one headline. Back in twenty-twenty-two, I got chopped up hard trying to fade a similar CAD move because I ignored broader USD strength and oil volatility.

If you are scalping or swinging this pair right now, please protect your capital. The trend is clearly favoring the greenback, and fighting momentum just because the data looks good on paper is an easy way to get margin called. I am keeping my position size small and waiting for a proper exhaustion candle on the four-hour before doing anything stupid. Anyone else playing the loonie today or just sitting this one out?

 

[LucasBennet]

CAD is a total trap lately. Everyone keeps trying to front-run the trade balance data but the market is clearly just glued to the USD side of the equation and oil prices. Honestly, stop looking at the surplus prints and just watch the DXY move, it’s been driving the bus for weeks now.