USD/CAD pushing recent highs while Loonie bleeds - what technical levels are you guys watching?

[Julian Ward]

Ngl, watching USD/CAD right now is giving me serious hesitation on taking any counter-trend shorts. The Canadian dollar is just sitting near these recent lows while the greenback keeps up the relentless pressure. Every time we get a minor pull-back on the lower timeframes, buyers step right back in and absorb the selling order flow instantly.

Looking at the daily chart, it feels like we're just building up energy to sweep the liquidity resting right above current key resistance zones. If this USD strength doesn't cool off soon, I'm worried any supply zones on the way up are just going to get steamrolled by aggressive breakout traders. I'm trying to figure out if there's actual institutional absorption happening here or if we're just witnessing pure FOMO buying pushing us toward a macro breakout.

Are you guys seeing any real signs of buyer exhaustion on your charts, or are you just waiting for a clean retest of previous resistance to ride this higher?

 

[Mason Brooks]

Man, I’m with you on the hesitation. Trying to pick a top here is just asking to get your account blown out. I’ve seen way too many guys try to fade this momentum only to get squeezed out by a massive stop run.

Personally, I’m not touching it. The risk-reward on a short just doesn't make sense until I see a real structural break and a confirmed retest. If you are going to try and catch a reversal, keep your position size tiny and your stop tight as hell. Seriously, don't overleverage. It’s not worth the stress.

Staying sidelined until the dust settles. Catching falling knives is for people with too much capital.

 

[EthanCole]

@Mason Brooks hit the nail on the head. I learned the hard way years ago that trying to be a hero and calling the exact top on a pair like USDCAD is a recipe for a margin call.

I’m looking at the daily charts and there's just no reason to force a trade here. If it hits that 1.3750 area, I’ll be interested, but until then, my capital is staying exactly where it is—in my pocket. Patience is the only edge we have, honestly. Why rush to lose money when the market will give us a much clearer setup in a few days or weeks anyway?