PipHarvest
New member
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2026
- Messages
- 1
Anyone else staring at these USD/JPY charts this morning? I just finished pouring a fresh coffee and my screen is basically bleeding red. I’ve been mapping out the price action since the open and honestly, the bears are in total control right now. We started the week hovering near 157.48 and the momentum is just brutal. After three straight sessions of the Yen strengthening, it’s pretty obvious that the market is pricing in way more than just the BoJ keeping rates at 1.25%. People keep talking about the "expected" hold, but the real play here is the December rate hike speculation. The market hates uncertainty, and that shift in the inflation narrative from the BoJ is fueling a massive unwind of the carry trade.
I was testing a small short position on Friday, honestly thinking we might see a bounce off the 158.50 level. I got stopped out pretty quick when the consolidation broke downward. Lesson learned—don't try to catch a falling knife in this kind of macro climate, especially when the institutional flow is clearly shifting away from the USD. I ended up getting rekt on that scalp, but it kept me grounded for this week’s setup.
Looking at the 4H, the structure is textbook bearish. We’ve broken below that key support confluence and if we can’t hold the current floor, there is absolutely zero reason why we don't test the 155 handle next. The RSI is trending lower, and we aren't even close to oversold territory yet. It’s funny how everyone was so bullish on the pair last month, thinking the USD was invincible, but now the FOMO has completely flipped to the other side. Retail is chasing the Yen hard, but the smart money was already rotating into safe havens before this current leg down.
Speaking of risk-off, have you seen the absolute carnage in the crypto space with that Binance hack? It’s crazy how $6.3B just vanishes into thin air, and now they're trying to reopen withdrawals in phases. If that liquidity stays trapped or if people start panic selling their crypto to cover margin calls, I wouldn't be surprised to see even more flow hitting the Yen. Gold is also looking shaky; if the yellow metal breaks lower, I’m betting all those traders rotate right back into JPY or CHF as a last resort.
I’m currently watching the 157.20 level like a hawk. If we gap below that, the breakout to the downside is going to be violent. I’m thinking about DCA-ing into a larger short position if we see a fakeout retest higher, but honestly, with the way the news cycle is pumping out December rate hike rumors, the path of least resistance is straight down. Don't let your greed get the best of you on the bounce. Are we really heading back to the 150 range before the month ends or is this just a massive shakeout? My alerts are screaming at me and I need to stop staring at the screen before I tilt and make a bad entry.
I was testing a small short position on Friday, honestly thinking we might see a bounce off the 158.50 level. I got stopped out pretty quick when the consolidation broke downward. Lesson learned—don't try to catch a falling knife in this kind of macro climate, especially when the institutional flow is clearly shifting away from the USD. I ended up getting rekt on that scalp, but it kept me grounded for this week’s setup.
Looking at the 4H, the structure is textbook bearish. We’ve broken below that key support confluence and if we can’t hold the current floor, there is absolutely zero reason why we don't test the 155 handle next. The RSI is trending lower, and we aren't even close to oversold territory yet. It’s funny how everyone was so bullish on the pair last month, thinking the USD was invincible, but now the FOMO has completely flipped to the other side. Retail is chasing the Yen hard, but the smart money was already rotating into safe havens before this current leg down.
Speaking of risk-off, have you seen the absolute carnage in the crypto space with that Binance hack? It’s crazy how $6.3B just vanishes into thin air, and now they're trying to reopen withdrawals in phases. If that liquidity stays trapped or if people start panic selling their crypto to cover margin calls, I wouldn't be surprised to see even more flow hitting the Yen. Gold is also looking shaky; if the yellow metal breaks lower, I’m betting all those traders rotate right back into JPY or CHF as a last resort.
I’m currently watching the 157.20 level like a hawk. If we gap below that, the breakout to the downside is going to be violent. I’m thinking about DCA-ing into a larger short position if we see a fakeout retest higher, but honestly, with the way the news cycle is pumping out December rate hike rumors, the path of least resistance is straight down. Don't let your greed get the best of you on the bounce. Are we really heading back to the 150 range before the month ends or is this just a massive shakeout? My alerts are screaming at me and I need to stop staring at the screen before I tilt and make a bad entry.