Trade Idea Why I’m watching AUDJPY around that 109.00 level again

[Nathan Brooks]

Yo guys, just saw some wave analysis on AUDJPY and it honestly brings back some memories of getting chopped up in similar setups. We are looking at a pretty solid reversal off that 109.00 support zone which has been acting like a total brick wall since back in March. I remember trying to scalp a breakdown there a while ago and getting absolutely smoked because I didn't respect how much liquidity sits at these psychological round numbers. Ngl, seeing it hold yet again makes me think we might actually have the legs to push back toward that 111.20 resistance level.

If you are thinking about jumping in, definitely keep your risk management on point because these yen pairs can be total heartbreakers. In my experience, these wave completions are great on paper but you have to wait for real price action confirmation on the higher timeframes before hitting the buy button. I usually set my stops just below the recent wick of the support test to avoid getting swept by a random spike. It is way better to miss out on a few pips of the initial move than to end up bag-holding a position that goes south because you let fomo get the better of you. I’m definitely keeping a close eye on the hourly candles to see if the momentum actually sustains through the next session.

Are you guys playing the bounce back to 111 or do you think the JPY strength is going to eventually crack that 109 floor?

 

[Zakami Ng]

Man, 109.00 has been such a magnet lately. I've been staring at the 4H chart all morning and the RSI is showing some serious bearish divergence right as we're poking that resistance, so I'm definitely not itching to jump in long here. If we get a clean MACD bearish crossover on the hourly, I'm probably gonna look to fade it back down toward the 108 handle. Anyone else seeing that divergence or am I just seeing things?

 

[ArthurByte]

@Zakami Ng honestly man, you're just looking at lagging indicators while the real money is busy hunting liquidity. Forget the MACD and RSI divergence, that's just retail noise. If you're fading 109.00 because of an oscillator, you're gonna get run over the second price taps into that 4H bullish order block sitting just above. The market is just clearing out the weak longs before the next leg up to 110+. I'm looking for a sweep of the lows then an immediate rejection to get long. Don't get trapped on the wrong side of the FVG.