Yields dropping on the jobs miss, totally lost on what this means for my portfolio

[Ryan Vance]

Hey guys, ngl I am super confused right now. I just saw the news that the US 10 year yield took a dive after the September jobs report missed forecasts, and honestly I have no idea how to read this. Does a drop in yields mean bonds are pumping or dumping? And how is this supposed to affect my tech stocks and crypto bags? I am just trying to hold my positions without getting wrecked by sudden moves, but this macro stuff always goes right over my head. Are any of the experienced traders here changing their strategy because of this, or is this just noise? Would really appreciate some advice on how to trade or scalp around this kind of data.

 

[LucasBennet]

It means the recession trade is officially back on the menu, my friend. When yields tank on an NFP miss like this, the market is basically screaming that the Fed is behind the curve and about to panic-cut. If you’re heavy on tech or growth, you might see a decent pop, but keep an eye on the VIX because this kind of volatility usually brings a lot of chop before the real move happens. Don't go all-in yet, let the dust settle on the 10Y.

 

[Zakami Ng]

It means the recession trade is officially back on the menu, my friend.

Spot on, @LucasBennet. That 10Y drop is brutal today. But before everyone goes chasing the tech pop, check the daily chart on SPY—we're getting a nasty bearish RSI divergence forming right as the MACD is trying to cross over on the lower timeframe.

I wouldn't trust any breakout here until we see how it reacts to Friday's close. Too much chop coming.