Dollar grinding higher ahead of the central bank dump – where are the levels?

[Thomas Reed 94]

Hey guys, been watching the DXY creeping up today while most of the majors are just sitting on their hands. It definitely feels like that weird calm before the storm with the massive central bank deluge coming at us this week. NGL, the price action is pretty sideways right now, but I’m trying to figure out if we’re just building up liquidity for a massive sweep once the news actually drops. I am looking at the dollar index and wondering if this slight bid is just a pre-event hedge or if the order flow is actually shifting bullish again for a longer squeeze.

The majors are barely moving and it’s making it a total pain to scalp anything meaningful today. I’m staring at the H4 charts and wondering if we are going to see a nasty fakeout toward key resistance levels before a massive dump, or if the market has already priced in most of the hawkishness. It feels like the big players are just parked, waiting to see who blinks first among the central banks. I’m worried about getting caught in a massive wick if I try to front-run the volatility before the official statements come out.

I’m really curious to see if anyone is spotting specific institutional order blocks or if you think the current support levels on EUR/USD and GBP/USD are actually going to hold through the data releases. Everything feels a bit fragile right now and I’d hate to get stopped out on a hunt for liquidity.

Are you guys looking to fade these small moves or are you sitting on your hands until the volatility really kicks in?

 

[ArthurByte]

I'm not touching shorts here. Dollar is printing clear bullish structure and I’m just waiting for a quick dip into the 1H FVG to add to my longs. Let the retail crowd try to guess the top while we ride the institutional order flow. Target is the swing high liquidity.

 

[LucasBennet]

I'm not touching shorts here. Dollar is printing clear bullish structure and I’m just waiting for a quick dip into the 1H FVG to add to my longs.

Man, good luck with that 1H FVG into a central bank dump lol. Powell doesn't care about fair value gaps. One slightly off-script comment in the presser or a surprise in the statement and your setup gets vaporized in about four seconds flat.

Levels are basically suggestions until the headlines hit the tape. Sitting on my hands until the release drops, then I'll trade the actual momentum.