Everyone is betting on a Yen recovery, but aren't we missing the bigger picture?

[MarketPulse]

I’ve been scrolling through the threads lately and honestly, it’s comical how much hopium is being inhaled regarding this supposed Yen comeback. Everyone seems to be pointing at the Tokyo inflation print like it’s some magical catalyst that’s going to force the BoJ to actually do something meaningful. Ngl, I think the market is setting itself up for another massive trap.

Sure, we’re seeing a little pullback to 157.94, but let’s be real here—the structural issues aren't going anywhere. We keep hearing the same narrative about inflation exceeding the target, but the BoJ is famous for talking a big game while keeping the yield curve crushed under its thumb. Every time the Yen catches a bid, it’s just liquidity for the bigger players to reload their shorts at better levels. Why are we chasing this "recovery" when the carry trade differential is still wide enough to drive a truck through? It feels like people are terrified of missing the bottom, but I’m convinced the bottom is miles away. Is anyone else actually looking at the macro reality, or are we all just praying for a pivot that’s never coming?

 

[Owen Carter 27]

Man, everyone and their mom has been calling a USD/JPY top for the last two years and look where that got them. Pure trend slaughter. Until we actually break some major daily structure and print a solid reversal candle, trying to catch this falling knife on the Yen is just lighting money on fire. I'm keeping my eyes glued to key resistance zones instead of fighting the flow.