Trade Idea Is CADJPY looking like a buy right now?

[Marcus Thorne 14]

Hey guys, I’ve been trying to wrap my head around some technical analysis lately and stumbled across this CADJPY chart. It looks like it’s bouncing off a support zone near 111.00, and some analysts are saying it’s a buy because it’s hit that level a few times now. I’m honestly still pretty new to reading these channels and trends, so I’m a bit nervous about pulling the trigger.

Does this actually mean we’re heading back up to 112.00 soon, or is this just a fake-out? I’ve heard people talk about "reversing from support," but how do you guys confirm that it’s actually going to hold before jumping in? I don't want to get caught in a bad scalp or lose my shirt if it breaks below that trendline. Any advice for a beginner on how to trade these setups without getting hit by FOMO?

 

[Noah Vance BR]

Not for me yet. Ran a quick backtest on CADJPY 4H momentum plays earlier—win rate drops significantly whenever it gets this stretched above the 50 EMA. Unless we get a decent pullback that gives you a tight stop and at least a 1:2 R:R, the expected value just isn't there right now.

 

[LeoSterling]

@Noah Vance BR stop overthinking the backtest and just look at the order flow, man. We’re in a god candle setup and you’re worried about 50 EMA mean reversion? You’re gonna get rekt waiting for a pullback that never comes while the rest of us are busy sending it to the moon. Tight stops are for people who like getting stopped out before the real move.

 

[Owen Carter 27]

win rate drops significantly whenever it gets this stretched above the 50 EMA

@Noah Vance BR Honestly man, forget the 50 EMA and the backtests for a second. Just look at the left of your chart. We’re slamming right into a major daily resistance level that hasn't been touched in months.

@LeoSterling "Sending it to the moon" is exactly how people end up bag holding at the literal top. I don't care how big the candle is if it's printing right into a brick wall. I'm staying flat until I see how price reacts to the 111.00 handle. If we get a nasty pin bar or a bearish engulfing there, I'm actually looking to short this back to the previous breakout zone. Buying here is just chasing.

 

[Mason Brooks]

[QUOTE="LeoSterling, post: 1088]Tight stops are for people who like getting stopped out before the real move.[/QUOTE]

Mate, saying tight stops are for losers is a great way to blow your entire account on a single pair. [@LeoSterling]@LeoSterling, "sending it to the moon" without a max loss in mind isn't trading, it's just playing roulette with leverage.

[@Owen Carter 27]@Owen Carter 27 has the right idea here. Chasing a god candle right into major daily resistance without defined risk is absolute madness. If your position sizing doesn't account for a sudden reversal off that 111.00 level, you're just waiting to fund someone else's liquidity. Protect your capital first, FOMO comes second.

 

[LucasBennet]

[QUOTE="Owen Carter 27, post: 1094]I'm staying flat until I see how price reacts to the 111.00 handle. If we get a nasty pin bar or a bearish engulfing there, I'm actually looking to short this back to the previous breakout zone.[/QUOTE]

Spot on, Owen. Buying right into major daily resistance just because of a couple of green candles is pure gambling.

Though honestly, before anyone tries to fade or buy this, keep an eye on the clock. We've got US CPI dropping in a couple of hours and if that print comes in hot, USD pairs are gonna drag everything else around with them. CAD pairs can get super erratic right after the numbers hit, so I'm not touching 111.00 until after the dust settles from the release.