Coffee hitting ATHs is a reminder to watch the headlines

[VantagePoint7]

I’ve been watching the charts for Arabica coffee all morning and seeing it smash through record highs is honestly a bit wild. Ngl, the volatility following the news about the U.S. and Colombia tariff drama has been a stress test for anyone holding positions. I remember back during the 2014 supply shock, I got caught trying to scalp a dip and ended up getting absolutely steamrolled because I ignored the macro noise. It taught me the hard way that when commodities hit ATH territory, the technicals often take a backseat to pure geopolitical sentiment.

The biggest lesson I’ve learned from these sudden vertical moves is that chasing a breakout when the news is this hot is basically begging for a bag-holder status. FOMO is the ultimate account killer in these scenarios. I’ve shifted my approach to waiting for the dust to settle and looking for a clean retest instead of jumping in while the candle is still vertical. If you’re trading this, please keep those stop-losses tight, because once the narrative shifts, these retracements are usually just as violent as the spikes. Have any of you managed to ride this trend up, or are you sitting on the sidelines waiting for the inevitable cooling off period?

 

[Liam Walker]

Watch the headlines so you know when to fade it, you mean.

By the time coffee hits mainstream news and everyone’s whining about the price of their morning latte, the move is usually on its last legs. The cure for high prices is high prices—I'm already scouting for short entries. Retail will hold the bag as usual.