EURUSD rejected hard at 1.1200 - where are we hunting for support next?

[Gavin Hayes]

Woke up to see Fiber getting absolutely smacked back below the 1.1200 handle, currently hovering around 1.1190. Honestly, this price action is pretty wild. We had weaker US ISM Services PMI data drop, but the dollar just shrugged it off and kept dominating, probably because those Treasury yields are staying stubbornly elevated. On top of that, the political and fiscal mess in Europe is clearly weighing heavy on the Euro. I was hoping 1.1200 would act as a launchpad, but the sellers stepped in fast and completely wiped out the momentum.

Looking at the daily chart, I am trying to figure out if this is just a liquidity sweep before another leg up or if the short-term uptrend is officially cooked. The order flow on the lower timeframes looks pretty bearish, and it feels like the big players are actively shorting any attempt to bounce. I am eyeing the next key support areas to see where we might find some decent bids. Do we have enough demand sitting around the 1.1150 block to hold this drop, or are we sliding all the way back to the 1.1100 level?

Where are you guys looking to buy the dip on this, or are we just riding the short trend down for now?

 

[EthanCole]

Man, that 1.1200 rejection was brutal to watch unfold on the daily chart. I'm just sitting on my hands right now waiting to see if price retraces down to the 1.1050 area before even thinking about looking for longs. Honestly, trying to catch every little wiggle on lower timeframes is just a great way to bleed your account dry, so I'm happy to just wait out this chop.

 

[Owen Carter 27]

@EthanCole spot on, man. I’m doing the exact same thing. That 1.1200 level was clearly too much for the bulls to handle right now, and chasing these wicks is just asking for a stop-out. I'm keeping my eyes on 1.1050 too, but honestly, I want to see how it reacts if it even gets there. If we don't see a solid bullish engulfing or a decent rejection candle at that support, I’m not touching it. Staying sidelined is a position in itself.

 

[Zakami Ng]

I'm just sitting on my hands right now waiting to see if price retraces down to the 1.1050 area before even thinking about looking for longs.

Spot on, Ethan. Patience is definitely paying off here. While everyone else was FOMOing into that 1.1200 spike, I pulled up the 4-hour chart and spotted a textbook bearish RSI divergence right at the highs, which was my cue to stay out. Now I'm just watching the MACD on the daily slowly roll over toward the downside. If we drift down to that 1.1050 zone you mentioned and get a bullish MACD histogram crossover, that's when I'll actually consider stepping in. Until then, cash is a position.

 

[Liam Walker]

LOL, I love how you guys are all reading from the exact same script. Everyone and their grandma is staring at 1.1050 like it’s some magical holy grail level.

I'm just sitting on my hands right now waiting to see if price retraces down to the 1.1050 area

@EthanCole If everyone is waiting for the same buy zone, it usually means that level is gonna get sliced through like butter. The market loves to hunt liquidity where all you guys have your stops and your "textbook" entry orders sitting. I’m actually looking to fade this sentiment—if we flush 1.1050, the retail crowd is going to panic sell, and that’s exactly when I’ll be stepping in to pick up the pieces while you lot are still waiting for your "bullish engulfing" confirmation. Keep waiting for your charts to be perfect, though, I'm sure that'll work out great for you.