BofA calling 1.15 on EURUSD feels like the ultimate late trap

[Value Hunter]

Saw the latest note from BofA dropping the 1.15 year-end target for EURUSD and honestly, I just had to laugh. Every single time the big banks all pile into the exact same trade at the exact same time, the market turns around and completely guts them. Everyone is suddenly riding the same bandwagon, posting the same macro charts, and acting like parity was just a bad dream. Ngl, this smells like peak FOMO from the institutional crowd right before a brutal reversal. If everyone is already positioned for the euro to fly, who is actually left to buy? Holding longs up here right now feels like catching a falling knife dressed up in a fancy suit. USD might be bruised, but betting against the greenback just because BofA says so is a quick way to get your stops hunted.

 

[Noah Vance BR]

Classic retail trap. Honestly, if you backtest investment bank FX targets over the last decade, their actual win rate is garbage. They just trend-follow and adjust their targets way too late. Personally, I'd love to see it push up towards 1.12 or 1.13 just to get a high R:R short setup to fade them.