Question EUR/USD dropping, is this a good time to buy or should I wait?

[VelocityFX]

Hey everyone, I’m still pretty new to the forex scene and trying to get my head around all these fundamental moves. I noticed the EUR/USD pair just dipped below 1.1350 today, and I’m seeing some talk about US Treasury yields and something called a dovish tilt from Lagarde. Ngl, I'm a bit confused—does this mean the dollar is just going to keep running up, or is this just a temporary pullback?

I’ve been reading that we have some jobless claims data coming out later today, but I have no idea how much weight I should put on that for my trades. Should I be worried about holding a position right now, or is this just standard market noise I shouldn't overthink? Any advice from the pros on how to handle these interest rate-related moves would be massive, I'm just trying to avoid a total fomo disaster here!

 

[Mason Brooks]

Buying the dip when there's no floor in sight is just asking to get your account blown. Are you even looking at the ATR or just guessing where the bottom is? Don't touch it unless you've got a tight stop loss mapped out, and even then, I'd keep the position size tiny. Catching falling knives is a great way to end your trading career early.

 

[JulianCraft]

@Mason Brooks is spot on here, man. Anyone trying to catch this knife right now is out of their mind. Have you guys actually looked at what the Fed is about to do? Inflation isn't going anywhere and Powell is going to keep hammering rates higher for longer. The ECB is totally trapped and the Euro is headed straight back to parity, if not lower. Trying to buy dips in this macro environment is just handing your money to the market makers. Sit on your hands and hold cash, or stay short.

 

[Noah Vance BR]

Trying to buy dips in this macro environment is just handing your money to the market makers.

Spot on, Julian. Trying to play long here is completely ignoring what the macro probabilities are telling us.

If you're still looking at longs with this kind of momentum, your risk-to-reward is completely out of whack. Wait for a proper structural shift and a confirmed volatility expansion before even thinking about stepping in. Otherwise you're just lighting capital on fire.

 

[ArthurByte]

Man, you guys are looking at this all wrong. Everyone here is obsessed with the macro news and "catching knives," but you're completely ignoring the liquidity pools sitting right below the current structure. @JulianCraft, I don't care what Powell says—I care about where the stops are parked.

Wait for a proper structural shift and a confirmed volatility expansion

Noah, a "structural shift" is just a retail way of saying you're waiting for the move to already happen. While you guys are sitting on your hands waiting for confirmation, the smart money is busy sweeping those sell-side stops into a massive bullish order block. I’m not saying go all-in right now, but if you aren't watching for a reaction at the 4H FVG, you’re missing the actual play. Let the market makers grab the liquidity, then look for the displacement. Don't be scared of the dip, just be smart about your entry.

 

[Owen Carter 27]

@ArthurByte I hear you on the liquidity, but you’re flirting with disaster if you ignore the daily candle close. Everyone is looking for a magic order block, but price action doesn't care about your pivot points if the bears are still holding control of the tape.

I’m with @Noah Vance BR on this one—wait for a real structural shift. I’ve seen way too many traders try to front-run a bottom only to get crushed when that support level turns into a hot knife through butter. Just watch how it reacts at the next major swing low. If we don't see a rejection wick on the higher timeframe, don't try to be a hero. Let the market prove it wants to bounce before you put skin in the game.